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5 Dec 2018 – Insights

The Big Picture: No recession yet

The global economy is losing momentum and further moderation is expected in 2019, but no recession is in sight yet – that’s one way to sum up Decembers macro economic “Big Picture” report from Danske Bank.

Jakob Ekholdt Christensen explains  

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Highlights from the big picture 


  • The growth momentum in global economy will continue to moderate towards its potential growth rate, but a recession is not around the corner.
  • A trade agreement between China and the US is likely in mid-2019.
  • Monetary policy outlook will continue to divert with the US seeing further tigthening while Europe and Japan will proceed more cautiuosly given the muted inflation pressures.
  • Political risks from Brexit and Italy will continue to dominate headlines but the economic impact should stay muted.  


Read the full report 

We expect global growth to fall from 3.8 pct. in 2018, to 3.6 pct. and 3.5 pct. in 2019-20, respectively. This growth trajectory is somewhat lower than in our last Big Picture, reflecting mainly the escalation of the trade war between the US and China. This is especially going to create headwinds for the Chinese economy (…). Furthermore, the tensions can also affect sentiment in countries exposed to the global cycle such as the eurozone, Japan and emerging markets.

Jakob Ekholdt Christensen

Head of International Macro & Emerging Markets, Danske Bank