Big Picture: Renewed trade dispute casts shadow over global economy

Re-escalation of the trade war between China and the US and weakening market confidence is weighing on the global economic outlook - that's one way to sum up the new macro economic “The Big Picture” report from Danske Bank.

Highlights

  • Re-escalation of the trade war between China and the US is weighing on global economic outlook.
  • We have lowered our projections for global growth to 3.2% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020.
  • A modest recovery is projected on the back of a US-China trade deal in H2 2019 and further stimulus by global central banks.
  • Risks are skewed to the downside from possible failure to strike a US-China trade deal and lack of timely policy action.
  • The risk of recession over the next year is still relatively low given the room for further global policy stimulus.