Nordic Outlook - June 2019

Nordic Outlook is economic and financial trends from the Nordic countries, prepared by our analysts.

Highlights

 

At a glance - Resilient, up to a point

The global and especially the European economies have weakened since the middle of 2018, with serious headwinds for German manufacturing and lots of political uncertainty over a trade war, Brexit and the ongoing budget crisis in Italy.

So far, the Nordic economies have been remarkably resilient, with continued decent GDP growth and quite strong export performances. The reasons are many: pharma and windmills in Denmark, exports of services in Sweden, demand from global oil investments in Norway and a major ship delivery from Finland, among others. However, this illustrates that the Nordic countries have entered the current period of slower global growth from a starting point of strong competitiveness.

Nevertheless, the Nordic countries are small open economies and very dependent on global developments. We expect lower global growth to become visible in Nordic data as well, but of course mitigated or aggravated by domestic developments.

Las Olsen

Chief Economist, Danske Bank