Skip to main content
4 Mar 2026 – Insights

Nordic Outlook: Nordic economies stand to improve


Nordic economies stand to improve in somewhat different ways, with more domestic growth in Denmark, Sweden and to some extent Finland recovering, and inflation cooling in Norway. This is one of the conclusions in the latest Nordic Outlook.




Globally, the economic outlook for this year and the next has improved slightly as manufacturing is showing positive signs, inflation is mostly declining and downside risks have not materialised.

“The economy continues to show signs of resilience. The global economic outlook has improved a bit since our last economic forecast in December, mainly driven by a stronger manufacturing sector. When you look at the major Western economies, you can say we are in a really stable situation,” says Heidi Schauman, Head of Research at Danske Bank.

Although there are no signs of cyclical decline in major economies currently, the risk exists and is enhanced by highly valued financial markets, geopolitical tensions, and US fiscal problems.

“So far, none of the biggest risks have materialised and that applies to tariffs and trade wars. It applies to the financial sector. It applies to geopolitics and to US unemployment that is surprisingly resilient, given that we under the surface see structural changes lowering employment growth. But just because risks have not materialised yet does not mean they won’t materialise going forward,” Heidi Schauman explains.

See Heidi Schauman explain more about the outlook:
 




Highlights from Nordic Outlook 

See Heidi Schauman, Global Head of Research at Danske Bank, explain more about the new Nordic Outlook or download the entire report

Download Nordic Outlook

c076dd40-62bc-4e33-936d-cdc960b0b0ef


The Nordic countries
Among the Nordic countries, Sweden and to some extent Finland stand ready to benefit from the improving global manufacturing outlook as well as better domestic conditions, and Denmark is expected to move from having high growth on paper to feel more like a high-growth economy. Norway is struggling with high inflation, but growth is expected to remain around trend in both 2026 and 2027.

“In the near term, the outlook for the Nordic countries is pretty good. We are seeing increasing spending power among households, we are expecting more investment and also growth in some of the near export markets especially Germany, so there should be room for a bit more growth, broadly speaking,” Las Olsen, Chief Economist and Editor-in-Chief of Nordic Outlook, explains.

See Las Olsen explain the most significant economic challenges and opportunities for the Nordic economies:


74ca19ac-699f-4f1a-b25f-8a562f498f28
Denmark: More visible growth
In Denmark, last year was another one characterised by high pharma-driven GDP growth but only moderate growth within Danish borders.
Going forward, growth is expected to be broader based as real wages accelerate on the back of very modest inflation and consumer confidence is recovering from record lows. Spending growth could be quite significant if we see a reduction in households’ large savings and public spending is set to increase.

Sweden: Signs of spring
In Sweden, the 2026 outlook is bright, with lower inflation and fiscal policy boosting household purchasing power, making the domestic economy an increasingly important driver this year.

Despite global political turbulence, households are benefiting from income growth, low inflation, and stable interest rates, which support both savings and consumption. Inflation has slowed, with VAT reductions on food further easing price pressures.




Norway: Growth is picking up
In Norway, growth is expected to remain around trend in both 2026 and 2027, where consumption and private investments are expected to be the most important drivers.

Inflation surprised strongly on the upside in January and continued high wage and price growth will probably force Norges Bank to postpone the signalled rate cuts. With this uncertainty, the inflation figures for February will become very important. However, for the time being, inflation is still expected to decline.

Finland: The economy has finally turned
In Finland, the economy returned to growth at the end of 2025 and the growth rate is expected to cautiously accelerate starting from this year.

After years of subdued growth, private consumption is set to rise as the savings rate declines. Industrial outlook has strengthened, especially in metal industry, evidenced by the growth of new orders. The manufacturing upturn in key trade partners, German investment package and Europe’s increased defence spending, is expected to support export growth.

The information in this article reflects the bank's general market expectations and should not be considered as advice. If you would like advice regarding your company's financial options, please do not hesitate to contact us.