1. The global economic cycle: boom, bust or just a modest muddling through?
The global economy is set to recover modestly with slight upside risk from a possible phase two US-China trade agreement.
2. New targets but the same old problems: where will the ECB and FED reviews end up?
The Fed and ECB reviews are likely to result in a significant shift in their monetary policy framework, but especially for the ECB the review will not be completed this year.
3. Will fiscal policy be the new game in town?
Global fiscal impulse is likely to stay lukewarm as the global economy recovers.
4. The end of Trumpism? Who will win the US election and will it matter to markets?
President Trump seems to be running behind but it is too early to make big conclusions. Irrespective of who wins, market reaction will be limited due to a likely divided Congress.
5. Will China and the US find a permanent trade solution – or will they move further apart?
In the trade war between China and the US, we look for a partial phase two deal in H1 2020 after the completion of phase one in mid-January.
6. No-deal Brexit risk revisited: can the UK and the EU strike a deal before end-2020?
The UK and the EU27 are set to agree on only a limited FTA by 31 December 2020 – but a no-deal Brexit risk still looms.
7. Broad USD strength – will it continue?
The broad USD is unlikely to weaken significantly in 2020 due to an ongoing investor preference for US assets and elevated USD carry.
8. Will 2020 finally be the year where yields end markedly higher?
Bund yields to stay in a relatively tight range because of technical factors and the economic outlook remaining too weak.
9. How much more upside is there for global stocks?
Upside for global equities limited amid highest valuations in 15 years and likely constant equity risk premiums.
10.Will the Middle East tensions cause a surge in oil prices?
There would have to be a significant escalation of the Middle East crisis to send oil prices sharply higher this year.