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3 Dec 2025 – Insights

Nordic Outlook: Cruising at modest speed

Economic growth close to potential levels is expected in most places, but in some Nordic countries, there is room for more of an acceleration. This is one of the conclusions in the latest Nordic Outlook.

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The US and euro area are in a close to neutral situation in terms of the economic cycle, with an outlook for stable and low unemployment, inflation close to target, interest rates at or converging to neutral levels and economic growth close to its underlying potential over the coming years.

"The global economy is from a cyclical viewpoint in a rather balanced situation, and our forecast is mildly positive. Economic growth, interest rates, inflation and unemployment are all close to long-run normal levels. However, we see that potential growth is slowing down in the US, it remains low in the euro area, and China is struggling with reorienting demand towards domestic consumers,” says Heidi Schauman, Global Head of Research at Danske Bank.





Highlights from Nordic Outlook 

See Heidi Schauman, Global Head of Research at Danske Bank, explain more about the new Nordic Outlook or download the entire report

Download Nordic Outlook

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However, in some Nordic countries, there is room for more of an acceleration than seen elsewhere in the world.

See Las Olsen, chief economist, explain the key similarities and differences between the Nordic economies, as well as the biggest economic challenges and opportunities in 2026.
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Denmark: Consumption key to growth in the coming years
In Denmark, 2025 has been another year with growth driven largely by the pharmaceutical industry.

Despite tailwinds to household finances and a solid labour market, private consumption is very low relative to incomes, which on the one hand keeps overall economic growth subdued, but on the other provides the potential for high consumption growth in the coming years. Consumers will be further supported by a big increase in purchasing power after inflation has normalised this year and looks set to be modest in 2026 when reduced taxes on electricity, in particular, will tend to pull inflation substantially lower.

Sweden: Headed in the right direction
The Swedish economy is showing clear signs of recovery, with the growth forecast for 2026 revised upwards.

Real household incomes are improving, supported by an expansionary fiscal policy set to further boost consumption and housing prices next year. The labour market is strengthening, with unemployment declining, though uncertainties persist regarding global trade dynamics and inflationary pressures. Inflation is expected to ease next year, but underlying pressures will likely prompt the Riksbank to increase the policy rate.

Housing investments remain subdued, but government spending on climate adaptation and defence is set to rise.

Norway: No boom after the rate cuts - so far
In Norway, there has been a clear slowdown in growth since the summer, driven by residential investments, private mainland investments and public demand.

There are mixed signals from the labour market, with slower growth in employment and higher unemployment whereas vacant positions remain elevated. This could signal some mismatch problems.

Inflation and wage growth has been somewhat higher than expected, but a weaker labour market and higher productivity growth allowed Norges Bank to deliver another rate cut in September. In 2026, lower oil investments are expected to leave room for other sectors to expend, which probably demands even lower rates.

Finland: On the eve of better times
After sluggish years, Finland’s economy shows cautious signs of recovery.

New industrial orders, housing market activity, and mortgage drawdowns are on the rise.

Production-related investments are expected to grow, and a gradual recovery in residential construction is anticipated in the coming years.

Labour market is also expected to improve, with growth in employment and real incomes boosting household confidence and domestic consumption.


The information in this article reflects the bank's general market expectations and should not be considered as advice. If you would like advice regarding your company's financial options, please do not hesitate to contact us.