While 2019 was a fantastic year for equity markets, it was also a year of tension with plenty of political uncertainty. However, a degree of calm has descended on several issues of late:
Boris Johnson won the election in the UK in December and Britain’s divorce from the EU will very likely be approved. Tough negotiations with the EU still lie ahead, but we have much more clarity now than a few months ago. Meanwhile, the US and China have agreed a partial deal in the trade war, and while a complete settlement of the dispute is still far off, this was an important first step.
But what the heck should we then fret about in 2020?
Don’t worry, there is still plenty to be concerned about. As well as further developments in the trade war, one political event in particular will be all-dominating in 2020: The US presidential election in November.
Negative impact of key political issue
I’m really looking forward to watching the drama unfold this election year, I hardly dare think about what controversial political statements may surface along the way, and I am excited to learn what will be the biggest political issues.
Will the healthcare sector again bear the brunt of the onslaught, as in the 2016 election? Back then healthcare suffered terribly during the election campaign, because the candidates were focused on reducing medicine prices (even though nothing much has happened since), and healthcare costs are still a focus area for both parties.
The US has some of the world’s highest healthcare costs, and while medicine only accounts for a minor share of the overall expenses, medicine is an obvious political theme that all Americans can relate to. Political uncertainty is a key reason why we have a neutral weight on the healthcare sector, which otherwise includes many interesting equities.
Keep an eye on Super Tuesday in March
Another interesting question is how the financial markets will react if Donald Trump’s opponent is one of the Democrats’ – in US terms – very left-wing oriented candidates, Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren? Will Donald Trump then suddenly become the favourite of most investors and analysts, even though they are often outraged at his antics? And what agenda will the Democrats’ candidate have in relation to the trade war with China?
What I will worry and enthuse about most in 2020
COLUMN: US politics will be this year’s overriding focus of fascination and main uncertainty factor for the financial markets, says Danske Bank’s investment strategist, Lars Skovgaard Andersen.